000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190901
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N94W TO 07N116W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 07N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE N PART OF THE AREA NEAR 29N125W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N110W. DUE TO THE RELATIVE WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS WEAK. AS A 
RESULT...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL N OF THE ITCZ. 
A SMALL AREA OF SE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS 
FOUND S OF 04N BETWEEN 128W AND 138W. OTHERWISE WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS OR OTHER SWELLS OVER THE AREA... 
WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT PREVAIL. THE 
SWELL OVER THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE NEXT 
SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME 
UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE EVENT...IT APPEARS THAT 
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL COMMENCE SOME TIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. 

$$
AL