000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N90W TO 08N104W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N104W TO 
06N120W TO 10N131W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 
07N E OF 82W...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 98W...AND FROM 
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W AND 
85W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA REGION NEAR 31N115W SW TO 22N130W AND INTO A MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N137W. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL 
FEATURE LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN 
WATERS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH 
ANALYZED FROM 17N126W TO 10N140W WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION GENERALLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA W OF 100W BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 02N120W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
THAT MOST OF THIS SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND 
STABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION 
OCCURRING ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE VICINITY OF 07N117W. 
OTHERWISE...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 
20N147W NE TO BEYOND 32N130W. MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS 
NOTED N OF 27N W OF 119W AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NW 
OF THE AREA.

OVER THE EASTERN WATERS E OF 100W...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN GUATEMALA NEAR 15N92W AND 
IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 12N E OF 100W WITH A 
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE CLOSE 
PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND AMPLE UPPER LEVEL 
LIFTING DYNAMICS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING 
GENERALLY IN THE ZONE FROM 04N TO 12N EAST OF 100W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N123W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N107W. WITH A RELATIVELY 
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE N-NE TRADES AROUND THE HIGH 
ARE REMAINING GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AT THIS TIME WITH SEAS 
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT TO THE NW 
OF THE AREA SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF 32N. 
AS THIS OCCURS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT WITH N-
NW WINDS REACHING 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 5 TO 7 
FT.

$$
HUFFMAN