000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 07N97W TO 07N105W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 07.5N121W TO 12N128W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. 
 
...DISCUSSION... 

RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 33N128W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 
20N110W. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO 
THE ITCZ...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS ONLY 
ABLE TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 
110W AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. RECENT ALTIMETER PASS 
DEPICTS SEAS GENERALLY 7 FT OR LESS OVER THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE... 
WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. THE WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT THE SAME STRENGTH 
AND NEAR THE SAME LOCATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS 
WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS OR GAP 
WIND EVENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL RESULT FROM A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER 
MEXICO WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE BAJA 
COAST AND STRENGTHEN WINDS N OF 28N E OF 117W BY EARLY WED.

$$
AL