000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N109W THEN ITCZ TO
12N128W TO BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 126W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N114W TO 08N140W.
VERY DRY AIR MASS W OF TROUGH AXIS PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.  STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDING ON W SIDE OF TROUGH BRINGS
MORE ENERGY INTO SCENE WITH NEW CUTOFF CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST.  STILL...DUE TO EXTREME DRYNESS OF 
THE AIR MASS LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE OR COPIOUS CONVECTION IS 
LIMITED. 

SE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...60 KT SW JET CORE ADVECTS SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...MAINLY ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR REGION E OF 83W...REMAINDER
OF BASIN REMAINS QUITE DRY AND STABLE.  
   
...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1018 MB AT 31N133W HAS FLATTENED PRES
GRADIENT AND DIMINISHED NE TRADES TO A MODERATE BREEZE WITH SEAS
BELOW 8 FT.

IN SE CORNER OF E PAC...STRONG SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE HAS
PROMPTED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 83W BUT LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY LONG LASTING EFFECTS
OF CONVECTION BURST. 

$$ 

...LOOKING AHEAD...
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER OF BASIN WITH ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR WESTERN SIDE OF ITCZ TO PRODUCE SOME 
CONVECTION.  HIGH PRES BEHIND COLD FRONT LIKELY TO BRING FRESH
TO STRONG NE TRADES BACK TO WESTERN HALF OF BASIN WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9-11 FT BY MID WEEK.  

$$
WALLY BARNES