000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170400
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 08N85W TO 08N105W TO
11N109W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N119W TO 08N133W...THENCE ITCZ
EXTENDS TO BEYOND 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL STILL REMAIN
OVER WESTERN MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM 103W TO 106W AS LOW PRES
CENTER MOVES INLAND.  MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
IMPROVE AS LOW PRES CONTINUES EASTWARD. 

STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO LONG WAVE TROUGH
NEAR NORTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLIER ADDING MORE ENERGY
TO STRONG SW JET CORE STREAMING SE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND
OVER SURFACE LOW PRES AT 21N106W.  VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
FOLLOWS SHORTWAVE.  SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SE OF LONG WAVE
TROUGH BRINGS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SE
TEXAS AND GULF OF MEXICO.    

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB AT 35N140W APPROACH NW CORNER OF BASIN.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HELP WEAKEN HIGH PRES
THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS FLATTENING PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING
TRADES BELOW 20 KT SUN. 

FARTHER SE...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH SW WINDS S
OF 05N E OF 85W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES