000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 09N90W TO 98N99W TO 11N105W
THEN RESUMES FROM 15N115W TO 08N130W...THENCE ITCZ EXTENDS TO
BEYOND 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 
LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB AT 20N107W CONTINUE UNDER VERY STRONG
SW SHEAR MOVE N-NE AT 10 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E QUADRANT.  SIMILARLY FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY WITHIN 180 NM ON E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES. 
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW STEER SYSTEM INLAND WITHIN NEXT 12-18
HOURS ELIMINATING CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.  STILL...HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN SW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY FROM MICHOACAN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF SINALOA.  HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MOUNTAINS BRING HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 
NORTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLIER ADDING MORE ENERGY TO
STRONG SW JET CORE STREAMING SE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER
SURFACE LOW PRES AT 20N117W.  ADDED SHEAR SPELL DOOM TO ANY
FURTHER CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR LOW PRES AND HELPS
STEER IT NE OVER LAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT OF TRACK...
TIMING AND INTENSITY...OR RATHER LACK OF...FOR LOW PRES CENTER. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
VIGOROUS 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NW OF AREA AT 36N142W APPROACH
NW CORNER OF BASIN.  AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HELPS 
TO WEAKEN HIGH PRES THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS TO 1021 FLATTENING PRES
GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING TRADES BELOW 20 KT BY SUN. 

FARTHER SE...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH SW WINDS S
OF 05N E OF 85W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES