000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

LOW PRES OF 1007 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 19N109W. THIS LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS EXPERIENCING STRONG SW SHEAR AND AS A RESULT... 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 240 NM IN 
THE E QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES. THE LOW IS MOVING OVER WATERS 
WITH WARM OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...THE SW SHEAR OVER THE 
SYSTEM MAY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. 
THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL 
TO PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM THE 
STATES OF MICHOACAN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SINALOA. THE HEAVY 
RAINFALL OVER THIS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL 
FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N85W TO 
12N105W...THEN IS DISCONTINUOUS AND RESUMES FROM 14N115W TO 
06N137W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N137W TO BEYOND 05N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 78W AND 81W IN THE BAY OF PANAMA. 
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 125W.

 
...DISCUSSION... 

MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA THIS MORNING...COMING INTO PHASE 
WITH A SHARP ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N120W TO 10N130W 
TO 06N140W. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO THE 
SURFACE LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 19N109W AND IS ENHANCING THE 
STRONG CONVECTION MOVING INTO W CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT IS ALSO 
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHEARING THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST. THE 
MAIN JET ENERGY INTO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST 
THROUGH THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...ALLOWING 
THE TROUGH TO STALL AND WEAKEN OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE TONIGHT. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MINOR VARIANCE IN THE 
SHORT TERM GLOBAL MODEL APPROACH THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE GFS 
A LITTLE SLOWER LIFTING THE TROUGH NE...THE CONSENSUS SHOWS THE 
SURFACE LOW FILLING AND MOVING INLAND EARLY SUN. 

MEANWHILE STRONG 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
38N144W IS MOVING SE TOWARD THE DISCUSSION AREA AHEAD OF A DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH MOVING E THROUGH THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IS 
MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 15N TO 25N W 
OF 130W AS PER EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS 
TO 10 FT NOTED BY A COINCIDENT ALTIMETER PASS. ALOFT...A SECOND 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SE A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE 
FIRST SHORT WAVE N OF 25N. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH 
PRES AS IT SETTLES NEAR 30N130W AS DEPICTED IN VARIOUS MODEL 
OUTPUT. THIS IN TURN WILL TRADE WIND FLOW TO DIMINISH WITH 
ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH SUN.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS TO 20 KT WILL 
PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY 
NIGHT...WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. GLOBAL MODELS SUCH 
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SW WINDS S OF 06N E OF 85W TO THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA INCREASING TO IN EXCESS 0F 20 KT WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT BY EARLY MON. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN