000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

LOW PRES OF 1006 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 18N111W. THIS LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS EXPERIENCING STRONG SW SHEAR AND AS A RESULT...THE 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 330 NM NE 
QUADRANT OF LOW. THE LOW IS MOVING OVER WATERS WITH WARM OCEANIC 
HEAT CONTENT AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE...HOWEVER...THE SW SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM MAY BE TOO 
MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE CURRENT NHC 
FORECAST GIVES THE SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF 
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS 
OF SW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM THE STATES OF 
MICHOACAN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SINALOA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL 
OVER THIS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE 
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N105W IT THEN 
RESUMES FROM 14N116W TO 07N135W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 121W AND 134W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
43N146W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N118W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PART 
OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 130W. 
NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEAS 8 FT OR 
ABOVE COVERING THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 18N129W TO 
08N129W...EXCEPT N OF 27N W OF 132W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT 
RANGE. THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE 
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL WEAKEN 
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
DECREASE THE RESULTANT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS 
OR GAP WIND EVENTS...WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 
FT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUN 
EVENING. 

$$
AL