000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES CENTER...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...1007 MB AT
16.2N111.7W HAS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND IT...BUT WITH
INCREASING S-SW SHEAR ALOFT DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON TRACK AND TIMING WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY.  GFS AND CMC NOW LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
WINDS AND SEAS..BUT STILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN UKMET AND ECWMF.
TIME RUNS AGAINST LOW PRES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES IN
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT.  NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTION
REMAINS NUMEROUS AND STRONG WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER.
NHC HAS INCREASED EXPECTATION OF DEVELOPMENT TO A MEDIUM 
PROBABILITY WITHIN NEXT 42 HOURS...THEN MOVES INLAND.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 10N99W TO 14N108W.  ITCZ FROM 
15N116W TO 07N136W TO BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 118W 
TO 132W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N118W TO 
CYCLONE AT 16N122W TO 00N138W.  VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS W OF
AXIS EXTEND W WELL BEYOND 140W.  

SE OF TROUGH...SWATH OF STRONG S-SW WINDS TRAPPED BETWEEN TROUGH
AND ANTICYCLONE OVER SW CARIBBEAN ADVECT ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE 
TROPICAL MOISTURE N-NE FROM MONSOON TROUGH DEBRIS INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
STRONG 1033 MB HIGH PRES NW OF BASIN NEAR 44N148W HAS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 18N120W.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH CYCLONE 
OVER CALIFORNIA PROMPTS GALE FORCE WIND ALONG W COAST WITH FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SWELLS SPILLING S OF 30N.  FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT W OF E PAC QUICKLY DISPLACES RIDGE TO THE N
DIMINISHING TRADES AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW 8 FT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES