000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 09N96W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES AT 
15N111W TO 08N128W THEN ITCZ TO 06N135W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF
AXIS FROM 118W TO 127W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB AT 15N111W HAS NOTICEABLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AROUND IT...BUT WITH VERY STRONG S-SW SHEAR ALOFT
DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON
TRACK AND TIMING WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY.  LATEST 
GFS AND CMC RUNS BECAME LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH WINDS AND SEAS..BUT
STILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN UKMET AND ECWMF.  TIME RUNS AGAINST LOW
PRES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES IN WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT.
NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTION REMAINS NUMEROUS AND STRONG WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER.  NHC HAS LOWERED EXPECTATION OF DEVELOPMENT TO
A LOW PROBABILITY WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
...AT THE UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N116W TO 
CYCLONE AT 15N121W TO 00N126W.  VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS W OF
AXIS EXTEND W WELL BEYOND 140W.  

SE OF TROUGH...SWATH OF STRONG S-SW WINDS TRAPPED BETWEEN TROUGH
AND ANTICYCLONE OVER SW CARIBBEAN ADVECT ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE 
TROPICAL MOISTURE N-NE FROM MONSOON TROUGH DEBRIS.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A FRESH BREEZE WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT 
TONIGHT.

STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRES NW OF BASIN NEAR 44N147W HAS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 18N120W.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH CYCLONE 
OVER CALIFORNIA PROMPTS GALE FORCE WIND ALONG W COAST WITH FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SWELLS SPILLING S OF 30N.  FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT W OF E PAC QUICKLY DISPLACES RIDGE TO THE N
DIMINISHING TRADES AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW 8 FT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES