000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          

LOW PRES 1008 MB CENTERED NEAR 14N109W. MODELS AGREE ON THE 
TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT DIFFER WIDELY ON ITS INTENSITY. THE ECMWF 
AND UKMET DEPICT A MUCH BROADER AND WEAKER CIRCULATION WHILE THE 
GFS IS PRODUCING A STRONGER CIRCULATION. THERE ARE COMPETING 
INFLUENCES ON THE LOW WITH REGARDS TO TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. 
STRONG SW SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE LOW WHICH IS A NEGATIVE 
INFLUENCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE LOW IS MOVING OVER 
WARM WATERS WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE CURRENT NHC 
FORECAST GIVES THE SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N109W TO 
8N128W. ITCZ FROM 8N128W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 101W-106W AND FROM 15N TO 
20N BETWEEN 108W-112W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IS N OF 25N W OF 123W. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
N OF 26N W OF 135W...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 13N W OF 117W. 
A 95-115 KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N126W TO 27N120W. A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 13N122W.

WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING THEN WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT 
BY THIS EVENING. NE SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT AND ABOVE 
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT ARE CURRENTLY REACHING AS FAR 
WEST AS 105W. WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
RAPIDLY LATER TODAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY 
THIS EVENING.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
EXTENDING 32N137W SE TO NEAR 22N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA N OF THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 130W. NW SWELLS ARE MOVING THROUGH 
THE AREA WITH SEAS 8-10 FT COVERING THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 
30N120W TO 15N130W TO 07N140W...EXCEPT N OF 28N W OF 133W. THE 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASE THE 
RESULTANT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY EARLY SUN 
MORNING...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH 
SEAS SUBSIDING TO BELOW 8 FT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. 

$$
DGS