000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          
STORM FORCE WIND ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TO GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT THEN BELOW GALE LATE FRI AS SOURCE
OF NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CHIVELAS GAP VEERS E AND SE.  SEAS
REPORTED AS HIGH AS 20 FT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE
FRI.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 08N92W TO 10N107W TO 08N122W 
THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 122W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N104W TO 00N125W BRING
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ASS W OF AXIS.  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
AT 22N133W EXTEND DRY SLOT W BEYOND 140W.  SE OF TROUGH AXIS...
S-SW FLOW ADVECTS ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE NE INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO.  

WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCES
MOIST WARM TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND GULF
OF MEXICO.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
VIGOROUS 1032 MB HIGH PRES AT 43N143W PROMPTING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES N OF 08N W OF 120W.  HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES 
N AS DEEP LAYER LOW PRES CENTER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
APPROACHING CORNER OF BASIN.  TRADES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY FRI
NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT BEFORE BUILDING BACK AS SWELL
TRAIN FROM APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACH BASIN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES