000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 
STORM FORCE TONIGHT DIMINISHING THROUGH THU BACK TO GALE FORCE
THEN BELOW GALE BY THU NIGHT.  MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THIS
SCENARIO AS COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES FURTHER E VEERING
WINDS IN BAY OF CAMPECHE AWAY FROM MOUNTAIN GAP.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER AT
09N103W TO 09N123W THEN ITCZ TO 09N136W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 105W AND 1ITHIN 120 NM S OF
AXIS FROM 117W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N99W TO 
10N118W TO 00N123W.  VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS W OF TROUGH 
QUICKLY DISSIPATE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO BASIN
BY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 17N135W.  

SE OF TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL WIND TRAPPED BETWEEN WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ANTICYCLONE AND TROUGH ADVECTS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM
MONSOON TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO 
THEN FEEDS STRONG COLD FRONT PRESENTLY CROSSING GULF OF MEXICO. 
 
...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
VERY HEALTHY SURFACE HIGH PRES 1031 MB AT 45N129W FORCES STRONG N
WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SOME FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SEEP
ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS 8-10 FT.  

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALSO PROMPTS STRONG NE TRADES WITH 8-10 FT 
SEAS N OF 10N W OF 120W WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE FRI. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES