000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132212
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 
STORM FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING THROUGH
THU BACK TO GALE FORCE THEN BELOW GALE BY THU NIGHT.  MODEL
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO AS COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVES FURTHER E VEERING WINDS IN BAY OF CAMPECHE AWAY FROM
MOUNTAIN GAP.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N82W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER AT
10N97W TO 08N116W TO 07N126W THEN ITCZ TO 07N130W TO 08N136W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 
60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 118W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N99W TO 
10N118W TO 00N123W.  VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS W OF TROUGH 
QUICKLY DISSIPATE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO BASIN
BY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 12N137W.  

SE OF TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL WIND TRAPPED BETWEEN WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ANTICYCLONE AND TROUGH ADVECTS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM
MONSOON TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO 
THEN FEEDS STRONG COLD FRONT PRESENTLY CROSSING GULF OF MEXICO. 
 
...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
VERY HEALTHY SURFACE HIGH PRES 1033 MB AT 44N133W FORCES STRONG N
WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA.  SOME FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SEEP
ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS 8-10 FT.  

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALSO PROMPTS STRONG NE TRADES WITH 8-10 FT 
SEAS N OF 10N W OF 120W WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES