000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GALE-
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE SAME DATA SHOW 25 TO 
30 KNOT WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE MEXICO 
COAST...NEAR 20N96W. THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF STORM-
FORCE WINDS STARTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY IN THE EVENING 
OF TODAY...AND LASTING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GALE-FORCE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL 
FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MORE OR LESS. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 
KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AFTER 
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS END.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH PANAMA NEAR 09N79W TO 
08N82W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 09N98W... 
TO 09N106W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N106W TO 08N115W TO 
11N130W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG 
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 
108W AND 110W...FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W...AND 
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 135W AND 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                            

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
OUTSIDE THE AREA...NEAR 37N155W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT 
SURROUNDS THIS CENTER COVERS THE PACIFIC OCEAN FOR AT LEAST 1100 
NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ABOUT 800 NM TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N130W TO 23N133W...TO AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N135W. 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 
10N TO THE WEST OF 110W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS 
THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 08N TO THE EAST OF 110W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N130W TO 12N137W. THE RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH NORTHEAST 
TRADEWINDS ALREADY INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 
RANGING FROM 6 TO 9 FEET ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM 09N TO 22N TO 
THE WEST OF 118W...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N113W TO 25N108W TO 19N105W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. 
 
$$
MT