000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING 
INFORMATION BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS GULF WITHIN
30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WITH FORCE COLDER AIR MASS
ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS AND BRING STORM-FORCE WINDS INTO GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THU.  SEAS REACH 14 FT DURING GALE PERIOD AND UP TO 24 FT
BY EARLY THU THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE THU. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 10N89W TO 08N97W TO 09N104W
TO 08N114W THEN ITCZ TO 08N122W TO 10N130W TO BEYOND 
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONECTION WITHIN 45
NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 99W TO 115W AND FROM 127W
TO 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 
32N102W TO 10N117W THEN W TO 10N125W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS
WELL WITHIN 10-12 DEGREES N AND W OF AXIS AS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ANCHORED BY ANTICYCLONE AT
12N136W...COVER REMAINDER OF E PAC W OF TROUGH.  SE OF
TROUGH...WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN HELPS ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND PLACING IT JUST AHEAD
OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...     
VIGOROUS 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 40N130W BRINGS FRESH
TO STRONG NE TRADES ACROSS E PAC N OF 10N W OF 120W.
TRADES DIMINISH TEMPORARILY AS HIGH PRES DRIFT N TONIGHT
...BUT RETURN ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE 
TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST NW OF BASIN.  NE SWELLS
PROMPTED BY TRADES MIX WITH LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
MOVING INTO NW OF BASIN AHEAD OF DEEP LOW PRES PRESENTLY
WELL NW OF REGION.

HIGH PRES CENTER ALSO FORCING NW WINDS PRESENTLY INTO
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALTHOUGH SEAS REMAIN BELOW 8 FT.
WINDS DIMINISH BY LATE WED.

STRONG COLD FRONT WELL NW OF BASIN HAS LARGE LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL RUNNING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND WILL APPROACH NW
CORNER OF BASIN BY THU.

$$
WALLY BARNES