000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING 
INFORMATION BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS GULF WITHIN
30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERING GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAM MORE COLD
AIR MASS ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS AND BRING STORM-FORCE WINDS
INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THU.  SEAS REACH 14 FT DURING GALE PERIOD
AND UP TO 24 FEET BY END OF STORM FORCE PERIOD. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 10N89W TO 08N97W TO 09N103W
TO 08N107W TO 09N120W THEN ITCZ TO 08N129W TO BEYOND 
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 108W TO 135W.  

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 
32N103W TO 11N115W THEN W TO 09N125W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS
WELL WITHIN 10-12 DEGREES N AND W OF AXIS AS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ANCHORED BY ANTICYCLONE AT
13N136W...COVER REMAINDER OF E PAC W OF TROUGH.  SE OF
TROUGH...ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HELPS ADVECT
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO 
AND PLACING IT JUST AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
GULF OF MEXICO LATE TODAY.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...     
VIGOROUS 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 31N136W DISSIPATING
AS WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NW CORNER OF BASIN GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT.  HIGH PRES HAS BEEN PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG
NE TRADES ACROSS E PAC N OF 10N W OF 120W. TRADES DIMINISH
TEMPORARILY AS HIGH PRES DISSIPATES...BUT RETURN ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY AS SECOND HIGH PRES BEHIND COLD FRONT GETS
WELL ESTABLISHED JUST N OF BASIN.  NE SWELLS PROMPTED BY
TRADES MIX WITH LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS MOVING INTO NW OF 
BASIN AHEAD OF DEEP LOW PRES PRESENTLY WELL NW OF REGION.

HIGH PRES CENTER ALSO FORCING NW WINDS PRESENTLY INTO
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALTHOUGH SEAS REMAIN BELOW 8 FT.
WINDS DIMINISH BY LATE WED.

WEAK COLD FRONT DISSIPATING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
BASIN HAS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS NOR SEAS AT THIS
TIME...BUT SECOND COLD FRONT WELL NW OF BASIN DOES HAVE 
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL APPROACHING NW CORNER AS VERY
STRONG LOW PRES CENTER CLOSES IN.  SWELLS EXPECTED TO 
ARRIVE BY THU.

$$
WALLY BARNES