000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121620 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 12 2013

CORRECTIONS FOR UPDATES

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE BLOWING 
THROUGH THE AREA. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START 30 
HOURS OR SO INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CONTINUE AT STORM OR 
NEAR-STORM FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE SEA 
HEIGHTS WILL REACH A MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET DURING THE GALE-FORCE 
PERIOD...AND THEN REACH FROM 17 FEET TO 24 FEET BY THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 08N79W TO 10N90W TO 09N102W TO 08N118W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 08N118W TO 07N131W TO 08N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 
80W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 
92W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 14N105W TO 
11N108W TO 07N112W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                            

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. THIS WIND FLOW COVERS 
PARTS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N113W TO 27N110W TO 23N107W TO 18N103W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N122W 
25N124W 21N128W TO 13N137W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH. 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 30N125W...TO 14N124W. 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N104W 11N107W 7N111W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N134W 12N133W 8N132W.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INCLUDED IN THE PARAGRAPH 
THAT GIVES THE DETAILS ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
PRECIPITATION.

A COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 
90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH IN ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND SPEEDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 
KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS 
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. 20 KNOT WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 30 
HOURS OR SO INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEN WEAKEN AFTER 
THAT TIME. 

NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY TRADEWINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 
KNOTS FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 124W DURING THE ENTIRE TIME 
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SWELL EVENT WILL MOVE TOWARD 
THE SAME AREA DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST 
TIME.

A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT 42 HOURS INTO THE 
PERIOD...AND CONTINUE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL 
REACH A MAXIMUM OF 8 TO 10 FEET BY 48 HOURS.

$$
MT