000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE BLOWING 
THROUGH THE AREA. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START 30 
HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CONTINUE AT STORM OR NEAR-
STORM FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE SEA HEIGHTS 
WILL REACH A MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET DURING THE GALE-FORCE PERIODS... 
AND THEN REACH FROM 17 FEET TO 24 FEET BY THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 08N79W TO 10N90W TO 09N102W TO 08N118W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 08N118W TO 07N131W TO 08N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 
80W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 
92W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 14N105W TO 
11N108W TO 07N112W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                            

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N132W 21N127W... 
BEYOND 32N124W. THE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF AN ADVANCING MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N136W BEYOND 26N140W. EXPECT SOUTH TO 
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST 
OF 131W TO THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ON 
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ON TUESDAY...TO THE EAST OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. 
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N115W IN 
THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MEXICO NEAR 27N107W...TO 
19N110W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 15N105W 
8N106W 5N106W. THIS TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH.
 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...THEN ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEA 
HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET IN LONG FETCH CENTRAL WATERS. GUIDANCE 
THEN SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX...SUPPORTING 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. 
THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS WILL BECOME 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY...AND THEN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY ON 
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA HEIGHTS 
RANGING FROM 4 FEET TO 7 FEET THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE...WITH INTERVALS 
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15 
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N ON 
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE RELAXES THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING ONLY 
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... 
THEN TURNING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY. 

$$
MT