000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120334 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE NOV 12 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AT THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 30-40 KT TUE EVENING AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NLY SURGE OF COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE RANGE OF 9-14 FT WITH THIS NEXT SURGE. THESE WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO FURTHER INCREASE GOING INTO WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH REACH STORM INTENSITY OF 35 TO 50 KT BY THEN AS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FORECAST SEAS TO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 17 FT ...POSSIBLY HIGHER...WITH THE STORM WIND CONDITIONS. THE N-NE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT LATE THU NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6-8 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 14N95W TO 13N96W TO 12N97W BY EARLY ON FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM ALONG 06N78W TO 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 09N105W TO 09N118W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N118W TO 08N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 111W-115W. ...DISCUSSION... AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE AT 11N137W NEWD TO 22N127W TO N OF THE AREA TO THE PACIFIC NW SECTION OF THE U.S. THE RIDGE IS TO THE E OF AN EWD ADVANCING BROAD MID LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N132W AND EXTENDS TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 26N140W. A 1020 MB HIGH AT 31N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO 20N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF S TO SW 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELLS. WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. W OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELLS. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING WELL TO THE NW...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N132W TO 26N136W TO 24N140W BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE LATER DURING TUE MORNING AND INTO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BEGINNING ON TUE AND INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF NE TO E TRADES WINDS FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 118W-136W WITH SPEEDS OF 20- 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS AREA OF TRADES THEN SHIFTS TO W OF 129W BY WED EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION....A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SW U.S. SW THROUGH NW MEXICO TO THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND FURTHER SW TO NEAR 13N113W. THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED TSTMS ACTIVITY E OF IT OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE NUDGED EASTWARD BY THE AREA OF BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH PRES TO ITS W...AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND REACH CENTRAL MEXICO BY EARLY THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT 04N108W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NNE TO 13N109W. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED TO ITS E. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGING IS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO PERSIST FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. A WWD MOVING WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS SEEN ON THE SHORT WAVE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR 105W FROM 10N TO 14N. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS TROUGH TO CONTINUE WWD TO NEAR 115W BY WED AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONVERGE INTO THE TROUGH FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE TO THE N STRENGTHENS. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF INTO TUE...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR N PORTION BY TUE EVENING WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT. THESE WINDS THEN DIMINISH BACK TO 10-15 KT WED AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT. $$ AGUIRRE