000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON NOV 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AT THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT TUE EVENING AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE RANGE OF 9 TO 14 FT WITH THIS NEXT SURGE. THESE WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO FURTHER INCREASE GOING INTO WED EXPECTED TO REACH THE RANGE OF 35 TO 45 KT BY THEN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 OR 15 FT. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS TO BEGIN BY LATE WED EVENING AND INTO EARLY THU MORNING. THE MWW3 MODEL SHOWS SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 19 FEET. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU WITH WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM ALONG 06N78W TO 09N84W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N89W TO 08N96W TO 09N107W TO 09N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N120W TO 08N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 111W-114W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 114W- 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-88W. ...DISCUSSION... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE AT 11N137W NEWD TO 22N127W TO N OF THE AREA TO THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE IS THE E OF AN EWD ADVANCING BROAD MID LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N133W AND EXTENDS TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 26N140W. A 1022 MB HIGH AT 31N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO 20N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF S TO SW 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. W OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELLS. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING WELL TO THE NW...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N131W TO 26N136W TO 24N140W BY TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELLS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SEAS BEHIND IT LESS THAN 8 FT. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BEGINNING ON MON AND INTO TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF NE TO E TRADES WINDS FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 118W AND 136W WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS AREA OF TRADES THAN EXPANDS BY WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N115W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MEXICO NEAR 27N107W...TO 19N110W. A N UPPER LEVEL IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT 03N108W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD TO 14N107W...WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF INTO TUE...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR N PORTION BY TUE EVENING WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. $$ AGUIRRE