000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111602 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON NOV 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CURRENT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE WHOLE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO START LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MWW3 MODEL SHOWS SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 19 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOTS INTO SUNSET ON THURSDAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W 09N85W 07N93W 09N111W 10N116W 09N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N120W TO 09N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W...FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W...AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 09N102W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N132W 21N127W... BEYOND 32N124W. THE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF AN ADVANCING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N136W BEYOND 26N140W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 131W TO THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ON TUESDAY...TO THE EAST OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N115W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MEXICO NEAR 27N107W...TO 19N110W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 15N105W 8N106W 5N106W. THIS TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET IN LONG FETCH CENTRAL WATERS. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX...SUPPORTING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY...AND THEN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 4 FEET TO 7 FEET THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE...WITH INTERVALS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE RELAXES THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING ONLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN TURNING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY. $$ MT