000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING OF N TO NE 30-35 KT WINDS 
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
INTO MON EVENING...THEN ABATE TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THRESHOLD 
AT 25-30 KT DURING TUE MORNING. A REINFORCING STRONG SURGE OF 
NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE TUE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN INTENSE COLD FRONT MOVES BY TO 
THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AGAIN. AT THE VERY LEAST A 
HIGH END GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE 
CHANCE OF MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 15 OR 16 FT
BY LATE WED INTO THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 08N90W TO 08N100W 
TO 09N110W TO 08N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N120W TO 1007 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 13N129W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-
110W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                            

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF 
THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 
30N137W TO 28N140W. S TO SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 240 NM E 
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELLS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
REACH A LINE FROM 30N131W TO 26N136W...AND STATIONARY TO 
24N140W BY MON EVENING WITH THE SW WINDS OF 20 KT AHEAD 
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT N OF 28N AND WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM E OF 
THE FRONT. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT SUBSIDE TO 9 FT IN NW DECAYING 
NW SWELLS. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TUE AS HIGH 
PRES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND 
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE SWELLS OVER THE NW PORTION ARE 
EXPECTED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BY THEN.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH...ARE STREAMING ENE OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA N OF ABOUT 18N AND W OF 127W. SOME 
OF THESE CLOUDS ARE REACHING CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN LESS 
COVERAGE AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB STATIONARY HIGH PRES IS 
JUST N OF THE AREA AT 34N122W WITH ASSOCIATED BROAD RIDGING 
EXTENDING TO THE SW THROUGH 27N127W TO 22N140W...AND TO THE SE 
TO 19N110W. SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED JUST INLAND/TO THE E OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE 
PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 16N119W TO 10N116W. THE 
TROUGH REMAINS WEAK...AND EARLIER CONVECTION NOTED WITH IT HAS 
DISSIPATED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO AT 20-25 KT EARLY ON MON AS TRADES INCREASE E OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY 
BUILD TO 5-7 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS MON AFTERNOON...AND MAY BRIEFLY 
PULSE AGAIN EARLY TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$ 
AGUIRRE