000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102201 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN NOV 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OCCURS. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 24 HOURS AS THE CULPRIT STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY 48 HOURS...N TO NE WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE AT 20-30 KT WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A REINFORCING STRONG SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE TUE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN INTENSE COLD FRONT MOVES BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AGAIN. AT THE VERY LEAST A HIGH END GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE CHANCE OF MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 15-20 FT BY LATE WED INTO THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 08N90W TO 08N100W TO 09N110W TO 08N120W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N128W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N128W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 103W- 108W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W. S TO SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 131W AND 135W. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELLS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W BY MON AFTERNOON. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 30N131W TO 26N136W...AND AS STATIOANRY TO 23N140W BY MON EVENING. SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN NW SWELLS ARE FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 30N129W TO 26N133W AT THAT TIME. BY TUE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DISSIPATED AS HIGH PRES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE SWELLS OVER THE NW PORTION ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BY THEN. OTHERWISE...A 1020 MB STATIONARY HIGH PRES IS SW OF THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS NEAR 32N123W WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE SW THROUGH 27N127W TO 22N140W...AND TO THE SE TO 19N110W. SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED JUST INLAND/TO THE E OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER NW NW MAINLAND MEXICO. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ NEAR 12N187W. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 18N118W TO 10N116W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 16N116W. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS TRADES INCREASE E OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF. A BRIEF LULL IS THEN FORECAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A PULSE OF NE 20 KT WINDS EXPECTED LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. $$ AGUIRRE