000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...OVERNIGHT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN     
OSCAT PASS INDICATED AT LEAST 35 KT IN THE GULF...AND MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF 30 KT PLUS WINDS IN THE GULF 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WHEN MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OCCURS. WHILE WINDS ARE 
LIKELY TO BRIEFLY DROP TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN 
IN EFFECT THROUGH 48 HOURS AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF GALES. THE PRES GRADIENT MAY SLACKEN 
JUST ENOUGH BEYOND 48 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 
TO 25 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE BRIEF WITH A REINFORCING 
STRONG SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE TUE THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK AS AN INTENSE COLD FRONT MOVES BY TO THE N 
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AGAIN. AT THE VERY LEAST A HIGH 
END GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE CHANCE 
OF MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 15-20 FT BY LATE WED 
INTO THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N96W 
TO 11N116W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE 
LOW PRES NEAR 12N127W TO 09N134W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 103W 
AND 105W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                            

A COLD FRONT IS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE WATERS 
REACHING FROM NEAR 32N137W TO BEYOND 29N140W...WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH ABOUT 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT. EARLIER 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS      
W OF 140W AND N OF 32N WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S AND E OF THERE 
IN OUR AREA. SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN MIXED SW WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL 
HAS BREACHED THE WATERS AND IS W OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 
28N136W TO 27N140W. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH 
BY 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG 
LEVELS N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHILE 
THE PRIMARILY NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHES TO A LINE FROM 30N129W 
TO 26N133W TO 22N140W. BY 36 HOURS...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...AND BY 48 HOURS A SHORTENING 
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE LEFT FROM 30N129W TO 26N133W WITH 
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 FT.

OTHERWISE...1018 MB STATIONARY HIGH PRES IS SW OF THE CALIFORNIA 
CHANNEL ISLANDS NEAR 32N121W WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE 
SW THROUGH 27N127W TO 22N140W...AND TO THE SE TO 19N110W. 
SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED JUST INLAND/TO THE E OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA OVER NW NW MAINLAND MEXICO WHICH IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

WEAK 1008 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
NEAR 12N127W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH 6-7 FT SEAS 
NEARBY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 18N118W TO 11N116W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N E OF THE TROUGH TO 
114W. WITH THIS PATTERN...WINDS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N 
AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 100W. A 1010 MB 
SURFACE LOW IS WELL TO THE E NEAR 09N96W S OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
LIKELY NEAR THIS LOW WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W AROUND 15 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS TRADES 
INCREASE E OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS 
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF...WITH 
MAXIMUM SEAS NEAR 10.5N88W. A BRIEF LULL IS THEN FORECAST MON 
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER SMALL ROUND OF FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

$$ 
LEWITSKY