000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER                                 
0405 UTC SUN NOV 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... AN 1804 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
INDICATED WINDS HAVE NOW DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTPEC. THE PASS DEPICTED A SMALL AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. 
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE TO 30 KT THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE 
INCREASING AGAIN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS 
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 
14N90W TO 09N105W TO 13N126W TO 11N130W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N130W
TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 110W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                            

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SENDS A RIDGE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 12N110W. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING 
LIFT OF THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOUND SOUTH OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE 
FOUND IN THIS REGION AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. TO 
THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE...A LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 06N107W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
POOLED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGH AXES WHERE 
A SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM 17N116W TO 11N116W...A REFLECTION OF 
THE TROUGHING ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
WITHIN 180 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 14N. THIS PATTERN 
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

A SECOND BUT ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 
08N138W AND SENDS A RIDGE AXIS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 
13N125W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ 
WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 120W AND 125W 
AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING MORE 
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT BUTTS UP 
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY TROUGHING TO ITS E.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WATERS N OF 20N WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD 
INTO CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO NW 
WATERS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONGER TROUGH WILL 
ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUN 
AFTERNOON...BUT NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PRECEDE 
IT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 TO 10 FEET IN NW WATERS 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS NW SWELLS MEET UP WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SE SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE. A FRESH SW BREEZE AHEAD OF 
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE WITHIN 
240 NM E OF THE FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES 
A STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
TWO FEATURES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO 
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 25N.

ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BELOW 
8 FT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
 
$$
COBB