000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER                                 
2205 UTC SAT NOV 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... A 1628 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
INDICATED A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTPEC 
AND GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT IT IS LIKELY MARGINAL GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE CONTINUING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE 
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT ON SUN. A SECOND BUT BRIEF SURGE OF  
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE 
SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 14N90W TO 09N105W TO 11N110W THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 12N115W TO 10N133W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 10N133W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W
AND 125W. ISOLATED MODERATE N OF 05N E OF 90W AND FROM 10N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.            
 
...DISCUSSION...                                            

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SENDS A RIDGE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 12N110W. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING 
LIFT OF THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOUND SOUTH OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE 
FOUND IN THIS REGION AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. TO 
THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE...A LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 06N107W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
POOLED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGH AXES WHERE 
A SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM 17N113W TO 09N114W...A REFLECTION OF 
THE TROUGHING ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
WITHIN 180 NM E AND 240 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 12N AND 
WITHIN 90 NM E AND 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 14N. THIS PATTERN 
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

A SECOND BUT ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 
08N138W AND SENDS A RIDGE AXIS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 
13N125W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ 
WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 120W AND 125W 
AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING MORE 
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT BUTTS UP 
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY TROUGHING TO ITS E.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WATERS N OF 20N WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD 
INTO CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO NW 
WATERS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONGER TROUGH WILL 
ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUN 
AFTERNOON...BUT NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PRECEDE 
IT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 TO 10 FEET IN NW WATERS 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS NW SWELLS MEET UP WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SE SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE. A FRESH SW BREEZE AHEAD OF 
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE WITHIN 
240 NM E OF THE FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES 
A STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
TWO FEATURES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO 
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 25N.

ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A STRONG BREEZE 
AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
 
$$
COBB