000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091558 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT NOV 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THAT CONTINUED THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND WERE LAST OBSERVED BY THE 0548 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT BY NOON TODAY. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE TO 30 KT THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 14N90W TO 09N101W TO 11N110W THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N115W TO 10N133W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 138W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND S OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST IN THE AREA N OF 05N E OF 90W AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SENDS A RIDGE WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 10N110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING LIFT OF THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOUND SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND IN THIS REGION AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE...A LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 05N110W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGH AXES WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM 17N113W TO 08N114W...A REFLECTION OF THE TROUGHING ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM E AND 240 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 12N AND WITHIN 90 NM E AND 300 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 14N. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A SECOND ANTICYCLONE LIES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 07N142W AND SENDS A RIDGE AXIS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 12N115W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT BUTTS UP AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY TROUGHING TO ITS E. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WATERS N OF 20N WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO NW WATERS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONGER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAYS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PRECEDE IT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 TO 10 FEET IN NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS NW SWELLS MEET UP WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE. A FRESH SW BREEZE AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES A STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 25N. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A STRONG BREEZE AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. $$ SCHAUER