000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 8 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SSE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO 
CONTINUES TO INDUCE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CHIVELA PASS 
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 10-16 FT RANGE. THE 
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN THROUGH SAT MORNING ALLOWING THE 
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE. BY SAT AFTERNOON THE 
WINDS DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER GALE FORCE AT 25-30 KT AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SUN EVENING. ANOTHER BLAST OF MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON. GFS MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVEN STRONGER GALE FORCE OR POSSIBLY 
MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER 
IN THE WEEK LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N91W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 1010 MB 10N102W TO 11N107W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N111W 
1010 MB TO 10N119W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N125W TO 11N128W. ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 117W-119W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 124W-128W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 139W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO 
NEAR 13N120W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO 
TRIGGER OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 105W-112W. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE NEAR 32N136W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING 
WSW TO ANOTHER CYCLONE WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
26N159W. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE NEAR 
32N136W HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING AROUND IT TRAILING A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW TO SW OF THE AREA TO NEAR 
25N149W. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE ONLY 10-15 KT WITHIN VICINITY OF 
LOW...NW SWELL IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 
FT IN FAR NW PORTION. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT 
STATIONARY THROUGH SAT MORNING. ON SAT AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL 
BEGIN TO QUICKLY LIFT NE AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR 
CONSISTING OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS NW OF THE 
AREA RE-ENERGIZES THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO ALONG A LINE FROM 30N138W TO 
29N140W BY SUN AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL 
PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. A RATHER EXTENSIVE SWELL 
TRAIN WITH LONG PERIODS WILL PROPAGATE SEWD BEHIND THE 
FRONT...AND INTO THE FAR NW WATERS BY SUN EVENING. WAVEWATCH 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE 
THE SEAS OVER THOSE WATERS TO THE 9-11 FT RANGE BY SUN NIGHT

OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS 
MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...FROM SCATTERED  
MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA IS SPREADING WESTWARD TO NEAR 94W WHERE IT 
DISSOLVES IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT THAT COVERS THE AREA S OF 08N.

$$
AGUIRRE