000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 8 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INDUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS 
CHIVELA PASS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 40 KT...WITH MAX SEAS ESTIMATED AT 17 FT. THE 
GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT LATER TODAY...BUT MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SAT. 
MAX WINDS OF 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN EVENING. ANOTHER 
BLAST OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT AND 
EARLY MON. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVEN STRONGER GALE 
FORCE OR POSSIBLY MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATER IN THE WEEK LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N91W TO 14N110W TO 
11N127W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N127W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 12N92W TO 06N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO 
NEAR 13N123W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING 
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 
100W AND 110W. DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE JUST W OF EXTREME NW PART OF 
AREA NEAR 31N142W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WSW TO ANOTHER CYCLONE 
NEAR 26N159W. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE NEAR 
31N142W HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING AROUND IT TRAILING A 
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW TO 27N143W. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE 
ONLY 10-15 KT WITHIN VICINITY OF LOW...NW SWELL IS PUSHING INTO 
THE AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT IN FAR NW PORTION. THE LOW 
WILL MEANDER ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH A COLD 
FRONT FORMING W OF THE LOW SAT EVENING AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF 
COLD AIR RE-ENERGIZES THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE INTENSIFYING LOW 
WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE OF AREA. 20-25 KT N WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY 
THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-13 FT IN NW PORTION SUN. FRONT 
WILL REACH FROM 32N127W TO 23N135W MON CHARACTERIZED BY A MINOR 
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT STILL PACKING SEAS TO 8-9 FT.

$$
MUNDELL