000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080328 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI NOV 8 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... STRONG HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A 1032 MB HIGH CENTER OVER NE MEXICO IS BUILDING S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND IS INDUCING A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THAT PART OF MEXICO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE ONSET OF N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30- 40 KT THAT HAVE SURGED SOUTHWARD INTO THE CHIVELA PASS...AND OUT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO BEGIN TO RELAX. BY SAT EVENING...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THRESHOLD BUT MAY EASILY INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE IF THE HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO UP AGAIN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DEPICTS SEAS TO MAX OUT AT ABOUT 16 FT EARLY ON FRI...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 10 FT SAT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N79W TO 06N91W TO 10N101W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N109W 1008 MB TO 12N117W TO 12N126W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 124W-126W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO NEAR 13N118W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. RELATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NEWD TO INLAND NW AND CENTRAL MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N142W IS MOVING SSE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER CYCLONE N OF THE HAWAIIN ISLANDS NEAR 26N158W. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE NEAR 33N142W IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 31.5N142W BY LATE TONIGHT TRAILING A WEAK TROUGH SW TO NEAR 27N140W...AND TO NEAR 30N138W BY FRI AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS BRIEFLY REACHING 8 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N137W TO 28N140W BY EARLY FRI...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME RE-ENERGIZED LATE FRI...AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY LIFT NEWD SAT LEAVING BEHIND INCREASING NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT JUST TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS OF 10-16 FT APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER BY LATE SAT. OVER THE FARE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE SOUTHER PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ...FROM ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WESTWARD TO NEAR 92W. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXCEPT FROM 19N TO 27N WHERE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD TO NEAR 119W ARE NOTED. $$ AGUIRRE