000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 7 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL 
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT JUST INLAND THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID INCREASE IN N-NE WINDS 
THAT WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN JUST A FEW 
HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE BY EARLY THIS EVENING 
WITH WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KT TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK FRI. 
GFS AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
WILL THAN RELAX ON SAT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO JUST 
BELOW GALE FORCE. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DEPICTS SEAS TO MAX OUT AT 
ABOUT 14 FT DURING FRI...AND SUBSIDE TO 10 FT SAT.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N91W TO 12N103W 
TO 11N117W TO 12N124W TO 10N132W. ITCZ AXIS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
10N132W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 
NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-111W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO NEAR 
13N120W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 12N BETWEEN 
105W AND 109W. RELATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NEWD TO INLAND NW 
AND CENTRAL MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
33N142W IS MOVING SSE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER 
CYCLONE N OF THE OAHU CENTERED NEAR 26N158W. THE SURFACE LOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE NEAR 33N142W IS FORECAST TO REACH 
NEAR 31.5N142W BY LATE TONIGHT TRAILING A WEAK TROUGH SW TO NEAR 
27N140W...AND TO NEAR 30N138W BY FRI AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED NW 
SWELLS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS BRIEFLY 
REACHING 8 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N137W TO 28N140W BY EARLY 
FRI...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE LOW 
IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME RE-ENERGIZED LATE FRI...AND 
LIFT BEGIN TO QUICKLY LIFT NEWD SAT LEAVING BEHIND INCREASING NE 
WINDS OF 25-30 KT JUST TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS 
OF 10-16 FT APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER BY LATE SAT.

OVER THE FARE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE SOUTHER PERIPHERY 
OF LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
...FROM WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA...WESTWARD TO NEAR 92W.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-25 KT WINDS WITH MAX SEAS TO 8 FT N 
OF 27N ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON  
SAT. MODERATE NW FLOW WILL SET UP AGAIN AT AROUND 15 KT SUN AND 
MON. 

$$
AGUIRRE