000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 7 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING S IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL 
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INDUCE A 
RAPID INCREASE IN N-NE WINDS SPILLING INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. 
STRONGEST WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
SUNRISE FRI...THEN THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX WITH WINDS FALLING 
BELOW GALE FORCE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SAT. GFS WAVE MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX SEAS OF 13-14 FT NEAR 13N95W LATE FRI.     

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM 06N77W TO 06N91W TO 12N105W TO 
11N117W TO 12N126W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N128W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 101W... 
BETWEEN 106W AND 110W...AND 116W TO 123W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO NEAR 
13N120W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING CIRRUS 
CLOUDS AND TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 
110W. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NW OF THE AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 
34N141W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER CYCLONE N OF THE 
OAHU CENTERED NEAR 26N158W.  THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
CYCLONE NEAR 34N141W WILL REACH NEAR 31N139W TONIGHT TRAILING A 
WEAK TROUGH SW TO NEAR 27N140W. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL ONLY 10-15 
KT WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW...IT WILL PUSH NW SWELLS INTO THE 
AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS BRIEFLY REACHING 8 FT IN FAR NW PORTION 
FRI. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS THROUGH SAT 
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT FORMING W OF THE LOW SAT EVENING AS A 
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR RE-ENERGIZES THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. 
THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE OF THE AREA. 20-25 KT 
N WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-13 FT 
NW OF A LINE FROM 32N134W TO 24N140W SUN. FRONT WILL REACH FROM 
32N127W TO 23N135W MON WITH ONLY A MINOR KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY...BUT STILL PACKING SEAS TO 8-9 FT W OF A LINE FROM 
32N125W TO 21N140W.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-25 KT WINDS WITH MAX SEAS TO 8 FT N 
OF 27N ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT. MODERATE NW FLOW WILL 
SET UP AGAIN AT AROUND 15 KT SUN AND MON. 

$$
MUNDELL