000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU NOV 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND PACK NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE CHIVELA PASS. NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY AT 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BY NOON TODAY...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI... THEN THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE ON SAT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR S AS 13.5N95.5W LATE TONIGHT...WITH NE 25 KT WINDS REACHING NEAR 12.5N96.5W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL BE ALONG 10N BETWEEN 96-99W ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH MAX SEAS OF 14 FT NEAR 13N95W LATE FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 09N-11N FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W TO SE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N83W...THE CONTINUES NW ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 12N87W...THEN NW TO 14N95W...THEN SW TO 11N112W...THEN NW AGAIN TO 12N125W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N87W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09.5N96W TO 11N105W TO 10N120W TO 14N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED WELL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N103W TO 19N108W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N111W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL N AMERICA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CONTINUING SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N100W AND CROSSING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 28N111W...THEN TURNING S THROUGH AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE AT 20N117W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 12N118W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 480 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 12N114W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 22N132W TO 32N122W AND COLLAPSING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE... ROUGHLY WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21N140W TO 27N128W TO 36N120W WHERE THE MOISTURE SPILLS SE BACK OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 30N BETWEEN 121-116W. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N141W WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER CYCLONE N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE CYCLONE AT 36N141W WILL MOVE SE TO NEAR 34N140W TONIGHT AND NEAR 33N130W ON FRI NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 31N139W TONIGHT TRAILING A WEAK TROUGH SW TO NEAR 27N140W. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL ONLY 10-15 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW...IT WILL DRIVE NW SWELLS INTO THE AREA MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 8 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION BRIEFLY ON FRI. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER IN THAT AREA THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THEN FORMING W OF THE LOW AND MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION ON SAT NIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS RAPIDLY NE OF THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-13 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 32N134W TO 24N140W ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N127W TO 23N135W ON MON WITH ONLY A 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...BUT SEAS 7-9 FT W OF LINE FROM 32N125W TO 21N140W. THE FRONT WILL LOSE IDENTITY LATE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY TUE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THESE COASTAL WATERS N OF 28N LATE TUE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OVER MEXICO AT 20N98W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW OVER THE PACIFIC TO A BASE AT 14N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS AT 14N105W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 08N115W. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCING THE CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N ALONG IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALREADY MENTIONED... ROUGHLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N110W TO 24N107W...THEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TURNS NE ACROSS MEXICO NARROWING AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-30 KT WINDS/SEAS 5-8 FT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10- 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT ON FRI BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SAT. THE NW FLOW WILL SET UP AGAIN AT 10-15 KT ON SUN THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN WITH THE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE WED INTO THU. $$ NELSON