000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO THURSDAY WITH A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT BEGINNING IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SHORTLY BEFORE 07/1200 UTC. 
GFS AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL 
PUSH THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS REGION INCREASING SURFACE FLOW TO 
20-25 KT INITIALLY...THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 07/1800 UTC. 
A STRONGER NORTHERLY SURGE TO 40 KT IS ANTICIPATED EARLY FRIDAY 
MORNING DUE TO PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO A RANGE OF 
10 TO 14 FT BY FRIDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 13N90W TO 11N95W 
TO 09N109W TO 12N120W TO 08N130W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 118W-122W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-105W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 
OVER NW MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING W NEAR 23N117.5W...AND S 
TO TO A BASE NEAR 12N120W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE 
CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST 
WATERS NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH ONLY SPARSE MOISTURE ADVECTING 
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE 
ALONG WITH MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
GENERATING A FEW POCKETS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
16N-20N BETWEEN 108W-109W. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 12N142W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N-NEWD TO BEYOND 32N125W. THE RIDGING ALOFT 
SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH 
CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N130W. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE 
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE SMALL AREA OF 
NE-E 20 KT TRADES OVER THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 135W WITH SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELLS TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15 
KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
17N99W CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICO COAST FROM 14N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN 
WATERS REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 29N ARE FORECAST 
TO SPREAD S TO 27N BY THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 
HOWEVER...THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT DUE TO STRONG HIGH 
PRES OVER THE SW U.S. AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO WILL RELAX 
BY THU EVENING ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS. 

$$
AGUIRRE