000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061000 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED NOV 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 14N91W TO 11N108W TO 12N122W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N122W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM WSW OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 87W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W AND 136W. .SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE FROM 16N115W TO 16N111W TO 22N106W. ...DISCUSSION... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N97W...ABOUT 160 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 09N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MEXICO NEAR 31N108W...THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N112W...22N116W... TO 16N121W...TO 11N123W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF IT...TO 126W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE FROM 16N115W TO 16N111W TO 22N106W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N136W TO 26N140W BEYOND 19N140W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N133W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER THROUGH 32N137W BEYOND 32N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N122W 12N123W 9N124W. IT SEPARATES THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE ITCZ. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO THE WEST OF 118W. NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN SEA HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY...WHILE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A RESIDUAL SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 127W AND 135W. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE U.S.A. GREAT BASIN REGION. RIDGING WILL EXTEND TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE DESERT OF CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH A TROUGH IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND OF MEXICO ALREADY HAS INITIATED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO 26N BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 30 KT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO CLOSE TO 8 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FEET OR LESS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND 42 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ MT