000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060349
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 09N84W TO 11N96W 
TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N108W TO 12N122W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 08N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 117W-122W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-
127W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...  

ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS 
SECTION OF THE U.S. SW THROUGH 30N114W TO 24N118W TO NEAR 
14N121W. BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA W OF 
THE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER ANTICYCLONE JUST W OF THE 
AREA AT 13N144W. AN UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING NNW IS OVER THE 
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 14N98W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SW TO BETWEEN THE 
UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE 
REMAINS RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR N OF 15N W 
OF 130W WHERE PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS...IS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THAT 
PORTION OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...DERIVED 
FROM CONVECTION IN THE TROPICS...ARE BEING ADVECTED NEWD BETWEEN 
TROUGH AND THE UPPER LOW TOWARDS THE GENERAL AREA OF CENTRAL 
MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N134W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING 
SEWD TO 20N117W. SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS ARE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL WATERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE MAINTAINING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W 
OF ABOUT 122W. THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 
FT FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 135W. NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS 
OF 8-10 FT CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL WATERS...CURRENTLY REACHING TO A LINE FROM 17N140W TO 
20N130W TO 25N115W. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WHILE 
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH 
RESIDUAL SWELL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 FT SEAS BY EARLY THU 
EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 127W-135W. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE U.S. GREAT 
BASIN REGION. RIDGING WILL EXTEND SSW FROM THE HIGH TO DESERT 
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER FAR NW 
MAINLAND MEXICO HAS ALREADY INITIATED NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER 
THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO EXPAND SOUTH TO NEAR 26N BY WED AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 
30 KT WED AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WINDS 
THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND OR AT 8 FT DURING WED. THE SEAS THEN
SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS THU AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE   
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WITH A GALE FORCE GAP WIND 
EVENT LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT N WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU MORNING...WITH A STRONGER N SURGE 
EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE EARLY FRI.

$$
AGUIRRE