000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N92W TO 10N101W 
TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N108W TO 12N122W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 08N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 117W-122W. 
122W. SIMILAR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W 
OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 130W-132W. 

...DISCUSSION...  

ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SW U.S. SW 
THROUGH TO 30N114W TO 24N118W TO NEAR 14N121W. BROAD MID/UPPER 
HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA W OF THE TROUGH WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED UPPER ANTICYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA AT 13N144W. AN 
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 13.5N99W. A 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO SW TO BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH. DEEP 
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE 
AREA...EXCEPT FOR N OF 15N W OF 130W WHERE PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS...IS 
STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...DERIVED FROM CONVECTION IN THE 
TROPICS...ARE BEING ADVECTED NEWD BETWEEN TROUGH AND THE UPPER 
LOW TOWARDS THE GENERAL AREA OF CENTRAL MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N134W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING 
SEWD TO 20N117W. SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS ARE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL WATERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE MAINTAINING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W 
OF ABOUT 122W. THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 
FT FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS 
OF 8-12 FT CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
WATERS...CURRENTLY REACHING TO A LINE FROM 20N140W TO 20N130W TO 
25N115W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WHILE PROPAGATING 
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH RESIDUAL SWELL 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 FT SEAS BY THU MORNING ACROSS THE WATERS 
FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS DECAY BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE U.S. GREAT 
BASIN REGION. RIDGING WILL EXTEND SSW FROM THE HIGH TO DESERT 
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER FAR NW 
MAINLAND MEXICO HAS ALREADY INITIATED FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN 
THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO EXPAND SOUTH TO NEAR 28N BY WED AFTERNOON...TO NEAR 26N BY 
WED EVENING...THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND OR AT 8 FT DURING WED. WINDS WILL 
REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT LEAST THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT 
MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30 KT AT TIMES.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE   
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WITH A GALE FORCE GAP WIND 
EVENT LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT N WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU MORNING...WITH A STRONGER N SURGE 
EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE EARLY FRI.

$$
AGUIRRE