000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051502
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N91W TO 08.5N110W TO 
12N119W TO 09N125W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO 
ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...  

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 37N137W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. 
SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 110W. THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS 
PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. NORTHERLY 
SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN WATERS...CURRENTLY REACHING TO A LINE FROM 20N140W TO 
20N130W TO 25N115W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WHILE 
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH ONLY 
RESIDUAL 8 FT SWELL LEFT BY THU MORNING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 
12N TO 17N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE U.S. GREAT 
BASIN REGION. RIDGING WILL EXTEND TO THE S-SW FROM THE HIGH TO 
DESERT CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER FAR 
NW MAINLAND MEXICO WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 
FAR NORTHERN GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO 
SOUTHWARD WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL 
REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT LEAST THROUGH THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE   
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WITH A GALE FORCE GAP WIND 
EVENT LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU 
MORNING...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE EARLY 
FRI.

$$
AL