000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N95W TO TROUGH 
NEAR 11N121W. ITCZ FROM 9N124W TO 8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...  

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS 
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 15N143W 
TO 32N130W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N115W TO 15N122W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W-135W. A 
100-120 KT JETSTREAM IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N115W INTO 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SE 
OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 10N114W.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE PRESENT N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W-130W WHERE 
THE PRES GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST...ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

NLY SWELL 8-12 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N115W TO 25N120W TO 
22N140W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL 8-9 FT SWELL LEFT BY WED ACROSS THE 
AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 120W-135W. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO THU WITH A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT LIKELY IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$
DGS