000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 11N89W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 09N94W TO 08N99W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N122W TO 08N125W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W 
AND 96W. 

...DISCUSSION...  

THE REMNANTS OF SONIA HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS 
TERRAIN OF NW MEXICO WITH ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION ALMOST 
COMPLETELY GONE AS WELL. MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED 
FROM 20N TO 23N E OF 110W IN THE WAKE OF SONIA.

1031 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS 
NEAR 37N140W EXTENDING A RIDGE TO THE SE THROUGH 32N130W TO 
20N110W. SEVERAL TROUGHS OF LOW PRES AND WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRES 
ARE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
ITCZ. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
ITCZ W OF 110W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 131W WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST... 
ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-13 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...CURRENTLY REACHING TO A LINE FROM 
30N116W TO 27N120W TO 23N140W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL 8-10 FT SWELL 
LEFT BY WED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 24N W OF 120W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED 
OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION ON TUE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING 
TO THE S-SW FROM THE HIGH TO DESERT CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING 
COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER FAR NW MAINLAND MEXICO WILL   
RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY 
EARLY TUE...EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO 27N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT 
BY LATE TUE.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE   
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WITH A GALE FORCE GAP WIND 
EVENT LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY