000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041508
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N93W 
TO 12N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N122W TO 09N125W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS 
TERRAIN OF W CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. 
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS 
WITH LINGERING SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 22N TO 24N E OF 108W. SEAS WILL 
FURTHER SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N141W 
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 22N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE W 
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE GENERATED A SET 
OF NORTHERLY SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE REACHING 
THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY N OF LINE 28N119W TO 
26N127W TO 25N140W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
SOUTHWARD AND BY WED MORNING SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER 
THE WATERS N OF A LINE 24N117W TO 15N124W TO 15N134W. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND ITCZ 
ARE MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA JUST N OF THE ITCZ. THESE WINDS HAVE PRODUCED A 
SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS COVERING THE AREA FROM 14N TO 18N W OF 
135W. WITH FRESH TRADES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THIS AREA OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WILL 
CONTINUE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE VEERED 
WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CURRENTLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 
KT ARE FOUND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W 
TO 14N96W WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
FURTHER DECREASE TODAY WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED 
OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION ON TUE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING 
TO THE S-SW FROM THE HIGH TO DESERT CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING 
COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER FAR NW MAINLAND MEXICO WILL RESULT 
IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY 
TUE...EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO 27N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY 
LATE TUE.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WITH A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT 
LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$
AL