000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...    

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA JUST INLAND CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 107.3W 
AT 0900 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

SONIA REMAINS SHEARED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION 
CONFINED TO THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM OVER LAND. IN 
ADDITION...THE SYSTEM IS NOW INTERACTING WITH THE TOPOGRAPHIC 
FEATURES OF W CENTRAL MEXICO WHICH IS RESULTING IN MORE OF AN 
ELONGATION OF THE CONVECTION. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION INLAND OVER MEXICO WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SONIA 
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY THEN DISSIPATE 
TONIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N93W TO 9N99W.  
ITCZ 8N125W. TO 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...    

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA WITH AXIS 
FROM 32N132W TO 29N130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA 
N OF 10N W OF 110W. A 90-100 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS FROM 26N130W TO 25N120W INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW 
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 19N102W TO 15N116W.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE 
WINDS ARE GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS PROPAGATING INTO 
THE N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 8-10 FT SEAS REACHING N 
OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 27N130W TO 27N140W. THE SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE S THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT 
WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT LATER TODAY.

$$
DGS