000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040256 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON NOV 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM SONIA CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 108.1W AT 04/0300 UTC OR 100 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND 100 NM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MOVING NNE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SONIA REMAINS SHEARED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM IS NOW INTERACTING WITH THE TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURES OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO WHICH IS RESULTING IN MORE OF AN ELONGATION OF THE CONVECTION. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 24N106W TO 22N109W. SONIA IS NOW FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL...OR MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY JUST BEYOND 24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE. HIGH SURF WILL ALSO IMPACT W CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INCREASING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N93W TO 12N103W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT E OF 140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... 1032 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N144W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 32N131W TO 24N113W...JUST WNW OF SONIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS PROPAGATING INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS WITH 8-10 FT SEAS REACHING TO A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 27N130W TO 27N135W. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE-S THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALSO MOVING INTO THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY LATE MON AFTERNOON...WHILE SEAS ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 13 FT ALONG 30N. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS...HOWEVER RESIDUAL 8-10 FT SWELL WILL COVER THE AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N134W TO 24N140W TO 17N140W TO 24N115W TO 30N117W TO 30N134W. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO JUST LESS THAN GALE FORCE WITH RESULTANT SEAS ALSO BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TO 8-12 FT NOW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH CONDITIONS BELOW HIGH SEAS CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...1028 MB HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION ON TUE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE S-SW FROM THE HIGH TO DESERT CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER FAR NW MAINLAND MEXICO WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY TUE...EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO THE 27N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY LATER TUE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS...MAINLY MODERATE WINDS 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT GALE FORCE WIND EVENT LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ LEWITSKY