000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...    

TROPICAL STORM SONIA CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 109.1W AT 03/2100 UTC 
OR 100 NM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND 222 
NM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MOVING NNE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SONIA 
REMAINS SHEARED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO 
THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 23N106W TO 
19N110W. SONIA IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL 
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE SHEAR 
INCREASES. DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IS 
FORECAST BY TUE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE 
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS 
MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE. HIGH SURF WILL ALSO IMPACT W CENTRAL MEXICO 
AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INCREASING THE RISK 
OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY 
DIMINISH/SUBSIDE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ONCE DISSIPATION 
OCCURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE GALE FORCE WIND EVENT HAS PEAKED WITH 
A RECENT 1804 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING MAINLY 30-34 
KT WINDS AT BEST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
GALE FORCE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAIN UP TO 
16 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS 
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 
FT BY THEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO LOW PRES NEAR    
10N92W TO 12N99W...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 13N121W TO 
09N128W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N128W TO 11N134W TO 09N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...    

1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
39N143W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 
32N125W TO 24N113W...JUST NW OF SONIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
OCCURRING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS  
AND 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NORTHERLY SWELL REACHING INTO THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 27N130W TO 
28N140W. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS 
WHILE THE NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE-S 
WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO UP TO 12 FT ALONG 30N. 
BY 48 HOURS...THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN ENOUGH TO 
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. EVEN SO...RESIDUAL 
8-11 FT SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH ALL THE WAY TO A LINE FROM 
29N116W TO 22N120W TO 18N140W BY LATE TUE MORNING/EARLY 
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...1027 MB HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME 
ESTABLISHED OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION ON TUE WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING TO THE S-SW FROM THE HIGH TO DESERT CALIFORNIA. THIS 
RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER FAR NW MAINLAND MEXICO  
WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY 
EARLY TUE...EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO THE S WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 
FT BY LATER TUE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS...MAINLY MODERATE WINDS  
4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL.

LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WITH ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND 
EVENT LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY