000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...    

TROPICAL STORM SONIA CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 110.0W AT 0900 UTC OR 
285 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING N AT 6 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR   MORE DETAILS. SONIA REMAINS SHEARED WITH THE 
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LAND 
DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. BUILDING SURF WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND IMPACTING THE W CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST LATER TODAY 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS ONCE THE SYSTEM 
MOVES INLAND.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF RAPIDLY 
INCREASING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS 
PUSHED THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 
GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT. CONDITIONS WILL 
THEN IMPROVE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY MON EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 11N90W THEN RESUMES FROM LOW   
PRES NEAR 14N122W TO 11N129W. ITCZ FROM 11N129W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 93W 
AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...     

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL 
MEXICO NEAR 21N104W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E-SE TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND TO THE SW-W TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 14N128W TO 12N140W. A 75-100 KT JETSTREAM OFF THE CENTRAL 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 26N117W INTO NW MEXICO. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. 

AN AREA OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 123W-133W LATER TODAY...THEN SPREAD S TO 25N W OF 118W 
IN 48 HOURS.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS WEAK WITH THE 
TRADES 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
DGS