000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030237 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 110.1W AT 03/0300 UTC OR 278 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ...OR 417 NM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SHEARED WITH THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF A LINE FROM 21N108W TO 18N110W TO 16N112W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS IT TURNS MORE TOWARD THE N...THEN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LAND DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. BUILDING SURF WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND IMPACTING THE W CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF RAPIDLY INCREASING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE ONLY 5-10 KT JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 10-16 FT BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH WINDS ALSO UP TO 45 KT BY THEN. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY MON EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N92W...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 15N122W TO 11N129W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N129W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 139W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N106W...EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E-SE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND TO THE SW-W THROUGH 14N127W TO BEYOND 12N140W. STRONG DEEP LAYER NE-E WINDS ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NE FLOW IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL AREAS PRESENT AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N TO 11N ALONG 92W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CONVERGING SW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 95W. WHILE THIS WAVE OF LOW- LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS AS AN OPEN TROUGH...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH OR A WEAK LOW PRES AREA WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE ABSENCE OF ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS RIDGING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 30N140W WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT N OF 30N OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES 30N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS... FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WHERE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 10- 13 FT...WITH 8-10 FT SEAS REACHING ALL THE WAY TO A LINE FROM 29N115W TO 25N120W TO 22N140W. $$ LEWITSKY