000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021555 TWDEP ZCZC MIAWRKEPD ALL TTAA00 KNHC 021555 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 109.1W AT 02/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 285 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 515 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE W AND NW QUADRANTS DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE TURNING MORE TO W-NW AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER MEXICO. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE A SHARP TURN TO THE NE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE AREA. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST TO INITIATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE SW GULF OF MEXICO REGION WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND DOWNWIND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WITH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING WINDS TO 40 KT DUE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RESULTANT SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO UP TO AT LEAST 14 FT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 09N84W TO 10N91W THEN RESUMES FROM 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 16N121W TO 11N128W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 11N128W TO 11N136W TO 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...AND FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N105W...EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E TO W FROM OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TO 21N115W. THE E TO SE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING WIND SHEAR TO THE CONVECTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSED ABOVE. FARTHER SE...STRONG DEEP LAYER NE WINDS ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NE FLOW IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL AREAS OF ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE VICINITY OF A LINE FROM 06N94W TO 13N100W...POSITIONED PRIMARILY WEST OF THE AREA OF DRYING NE FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 08N TO 12N ALONG 92W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CONVERGING SW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 95W. WHILE THIS WAVE OF LOW- LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS AS AN OPEN TROUGH...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH OR A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE ABSENCE OF ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE WAVE FORECASTING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E CONTINUES TO BE BOOSTED SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ANY AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL AND GFDL BASED WAVEWATCH-III GUIDANCE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WIND FORCING FROM THESE MODELS REMAINS TOO LOW COMPARED TO THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW 15 FT...IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AS IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED. WINDS AND SEAS FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL DIMINISH AFTER LANDFALL IN MEXICO LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS RIDGING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THE TRADEWINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH SEAS CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA...A SET OF NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON... SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE SSE WITH SEAS TO 12 FT ALONG 30N IN THE VICINITY OF 124W BY EARLY MONDAY. $$ HUFFMAN