000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020254 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 108.4W AT 02/0300 UTC OR 265 NM WSW OF MAZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS ON THE NW HALF OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM W OF A LINE FROM 21N106W TO 13N112W. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TURNING MORE TO W-NW AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER MEXICO. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE A SHARP TURN TO THE NE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE AREA. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING BY N OF THE AREA IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOWNWIND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WITH THE GFS SHOWING WINDS TO 40 KT COMMENCING BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SUN. RESULTANT SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO UP TO AT LEAST 15 FT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING LATE SUN. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N92W THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 15N119W TO 09N127W TO 09N140W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE S QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 09N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 05N93W TO 09N95W TO 10N100W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. ...DISCUSSION... THE WAVE FORECASTING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E CONTINUES TO BE BOOSTED SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ANY AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL AND GFDL BASED WAVEWATCH-III GUIDANCE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WIND FORCING FROM THESE MODELS REMAINS TOO LOW COMPARED TO THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW 15 FT...IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AS IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED. WINDS AND SEAS FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL DIMINISH AFTER LANDFALL IN MEXICO LATE ON MON OR EARLY ON TUE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS RIDGING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THE TRADEWINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH SEAS CRITERIA THROUGH THU. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA...A SET OF NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W BY SUN AFTERNOON...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE SSE WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT ALONG 30N BY EARLY MON. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO AND THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THESE WINDS IN THE GULF SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES PUSH THROUGH THE GULF TUE AND WED. THE GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE WINDS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS TOGETHER WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND FIELD FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E. $$ LEWITSKY