000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012143 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 108.3W AT 01/2100 UTC OR 265 NM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NNW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM IN THE W QUADRANT... WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TURNING MORE TO W-NW AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER MEXICO. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE A SHARP TURN TO THE NE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE AREA...WHILE MAINTAINING MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N90W ...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 15N119W TO 09N127W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N139W TO 07N140W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W...AND WITHIN 180 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 06N93W TO 09N97W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180- 210 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW NEAR 07N139W. ...DISCUSSION... THE WAVE FORECASTING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E CONTINUES TO BE BOOSTED SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ANY AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL AND GFDL BASED WAVEWATCH-III GUIDANCE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WIND FORCING FROM THESE MODELS REMAINS TOO LOW COMPARED TO THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW 15 FT...IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AS IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED. WINDS AND SEAS FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL DIMINISH AFTER LANDFALL IN MEXICO LATE ON MON OR EARLY ON TUE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS RIDGING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THE TRADEWINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH SEAS CRITERIA THROUGH THU. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA...A SET OF NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W BY SUN AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE ARE SOME FRESH BREEZE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY...THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SAT WITHOUT ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ON TUE AND WED...THE NEXT ROUND OF NORTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE GULF AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PREDICTED TO BEGIN LATE SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES BY N OF THE AREA IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS POINT...THE FORCING IS MODERATE...AND STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUN AND MON MORNINGS... ALTHOUGH BRIEF MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SUN MORNING. THE GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE WINDS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS TOGETHER WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND FIELD FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E. $$ LEWITSKY